Strategy Session – The collapse in coffee prices
Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Coffee
Today’s price is 2.80 cents per pound. That sits just above last week’s low at $2.75/lb which is also the 52‑week low. Year to date, coffee is down about 19%. Coffee prices are well below the 50‑day Moving average at $3.32 cents and the 200‑day moving average is at $3.50, which tells us the long-term trend is down.
The Relative Strength index is 32 and Stochastics are 15/23 which says momentum is tiring on the downside. This is not a buy signal on their own, but a sign to start looking for a turn. The Strength indicator shows sellers are in charge with an ADX at 33, which means the down move is legitimate. The average true range is 11 which states that the daily swings are not small.
Volume has been light versus the 20‑day average, which hints that recent selling has lacked strong participation.
Coffee is weak because the market is expecting a big harvest. If the harvest arrives on time, price will stay heavy. If weather or shipping trims flow, coffee prices may bounce.
Cross‑asset read. On the same tape, commodities as a group have shown they can firm up when stocks slip, helped by a softer dollar and steadier bonds. That mix often supports real assets, even while one crop is struggling. It also fits a bigger theme where things you can touch will matter more in the next decade according to our analysis.
What the charts are telling us
1) Price levels matter. Prints near 2.80 sits just above our first level of support and not far from the 4-week low. When momentum is weak and near support, the market becomes sensitive to any small bullish comment.
2)The trend is still down, but the stretch is real. Trading far under the 50‑day and 200‑day keeps the bear case alive. At the same time, the technicals say the rubber band is stretched. The bears are still in control, no doubt, but the easy part of the move may be behind us.
3) Participation is light. Volume is about 64% below its 20‑day average. Weak volume on red days often means price is moving more on expectations than on heavy selling. If volume expands on green days near support, it often marks a short‑term turn.
4) Simple levels for a plan.
- Defense: If 2.75 breaks, respect the weakness and look down toward 2.57 on the weekly map.
- First sign of life: trade to 2.86 and hold above the weekly pivot 2.89, and a possible test at 2.96 and 3.05.
- Momentum check: A trade Above 2.86 opens a run to the monthly pivot 2.99–304 zone where sellers likely defend the downtrend.
- Bigger picture: Bulls only earn the benefit of the doubt back when prices above the 50‑day 332 and then the monthly pivot 349.00.
The “tell” angle, applied
Coffee is down hard this year, which makes it useful. If price is weak and the harvest delivers, that will confirm the bear story. If the price stays weak but coffee inventories fail to rebuild or shipments stumble, that clash between price and facts can mark a turn. Watch four checks each week: harvest progress, crop flows, certified and destination coffee stocks, and the dollar‑plus‑bonds backdrop. If two or more lean tight while we sit near 277 and 275, the odds of a rebound improve.
Risk notes
Respect the downtrend until price proves otherwise. Keep position sizes modest near support and demand follow‑through above each level before getting braver. If the dollar firms and long yields climb again, the broad commodity bid can cool, and coffee can stay a laggard.
Bottom line: We are near the lower edge of a wide range with tired downside momentum. Fundamentals are one headline away from changing the tone. Use the levels to track that shift and remember that real assets can still lead even when one commodity is slumping.
Stephen Coleman – Head market Strategist
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.
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The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
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