From The Trading Desk – Stipelis| Commodities & Currencies

Tension, Timing, and Tone

Markets opened the week cautiously after fresh Middle East headlines. Oil and volatility moved higher, while equities and the dollar softened. This week’s data may help separate headline risk from underlying economic momentum.

Risk Appetite Shifts

Energy pulled back as supply concerns eased, while equities rebounded toward recent highs after weeks of pressure. These moves reflect shifting risk perceptions rather than clear direction, and they remain key markets the Stipelis trading desk is watching.

Mixed signals under the surface

Markets continue higher, but the rally has come on lighter volume and with volatility still elevated. Prices are rising, yet confidence appears selective. It is a reminder that progress does not always come with clarity.

Volatility Without panic

Markets look calm, but movement tells a deeper story.

Commodities Are Doing the Work

Equities are holding up, but they are still flat for the year. Commodities, energy, and agriculture are positive and doing the work. Staying long stocks makes sense, but adding managed futures can help fill the gap.

Relief Rally but no Resolution

Markets staged a powerful relief rally Tuesday as investors reacted to signs of possible de‑escalation in the Iran conflict.

A Market Still Deciding

A strong bounce, but not a clear turn. Oil dropped on easing tension, yet rates remain high and bonds weak. Mixed signals like this often point to a market in transition, not a finished move.

Dow 50K: What’s Next?

The market looks tired and needs time. Watch 46,500 as the decision zone and 48,000–49,000 as likely resistance. Stabilize near 45,000 and 50K is back on the table within 6–12 months. Until then, stay patient and stick to your plan.

Crude oil prices surged in a way we do not see very often.

Oil prices rallied as tension in the Middle East disrupted supply. Positioning and weak job data added fuel. For a year we have warned that rising geopolitical risk could hit markets. Now it is here. The next few days will shape the broader picture.

Crisis Alpha and Geopolitical Risk

Geopolitical risk spiked this weekend as US and Israeli forces struck Iranian targets, rattling markets. Managed futures can respond to strong price trends in stress environments, offering potential crisis alpha when traditional portfolios struggle.

The Coffee is Cold

coffee is down 20% YTD and parked near support around 280. That sounds bearish, but momentum is tired, the volume is light, and we are one headline away from a different tone. If the harvest and Robusta exports run clean, the selling may diminish.

Courts, tariffs and Whiplash

Friday cheered a tariff rollback. Monday worried about job losses from new tech. Growth is slower, not broken. Inflation is sticky, not spiraling. Rates are steady. Keep balance, stay patient, watch tariffs, earnings, and inflation next.

Why we never bet on just one market

Diversification is not a slogan. It is structure. By trading global futures across sectors, we reduce reliance on any single market. When one area slows, another can move. That balance is intentional and built into the program.

Let's Talk about Cocoa

Cocoa has moved from shortage panic to surplus reality. Demand softened, supply improved, and inventories are rebuilding. Price is pressing key support near 3,300 with heavy volume. Until demand truly returns, rallies may struggle.

The Quiet Move in Bonds That Matters

Bonds are rallying and yields are falling after softer inflation data. The bond market usually moves first, and right now it is signaling relief. If rates keep drifting lower, stocks may follow. If yields reverse, the pressure returns.

Stocks are following, not leading.

Markets moved together in a way that actually makes sense. The dollar slipped, commodities and gold climbed, interest rates stayed firm, and stocks pushed higher as stress eased. Growth still looks steady, but higher rates could pressure stocks if they rise further. Gold is the clearest signal right now if the dollar stays weak.

Higher risk for equities now.

Rotation is underway. Metals, energy, and food hold up, while cocoa, natural gas, and other basics weaken. Stocks show cracks and stress is rising. Risk of equity weakness is higher. Stay patient and watch for shifts.

Stress Is Rising Beneath the Surface

Foreign Exchange Signals Global Caution

Futures Test New Levels

Global Risk Travels Fast

Dollar Weakness Spreads

Markets Rally as Fear Fades

Markets at a crossroads

Volatility is Driving the Tape

Volatility Surges On Monday, November 17, 2025

The Tape Doesn't Lie

The Strategy Session for Wednesday, November 12, 2025

Markets on the move for Tuesday, November 11, 2025

Sector Positioning In Volatile Markets

The US Dollar holds while some commodities recover

Market Moves and Shifts in Liquidity

How do you react to volatility?

Fed Cuts versus Market Reaction

Commodities Signal a Shift

Navigating Markets with Clarity

Caffeine Surge

Navigating a Noisy Market

Commodity Trading Advisors Role in Turbulent Times

Crude Oil Remains Under Steady Pressure

Friday's Wake Up Call

Why CTA's Matter

Rate Cuts Fuel Risk Appetite

When Liquidity Vanishes, Risk Grows

The Fear of Missing Out Still Rules, But Cracks are Emerging

Shifting market signals reflect more than economics—they reveal investor unease with political instability.

Navigating a Complex September: Growth, Cuts, and Cross Currents

Signals From Lumber and Gold

Why Commodities Matter

How Managed Futures Tap into global trends

Volatility as an Opportunity

Turning market whiplash into potential gains

Industrial Demand meets structural deficits in the silver market

Beyond The 60/40 Rule

How a Registered Commodity Trading Advisor Expands Your Investment Playbook

The US Dollar, bonds & Commodities.

How Currencies and Interest Rates Shape Market Trends.

When markets are in Crisis mode

Turning market chaos into opportunity

Coffee Market eyes Recovery

Dollar Weakness May Brew Support for Coffee Prices

Risk & Rotation

From Inflation Hedges to FX Signals — What the Market’s are Telling Us

The Liquidity Advantage

Why Being Able to Move Fast with Your Money Matters—Especially in Uncertain Times!

Copper Melts on Tariffs

Copper just suffered one of its sharpest two-day selloffs in history, plunging over 20% after the Trump administration clarified its new tariff policy.

The Markets Are Speaking — Are You Listening?

As we enter the back half of 2025, the intermarket signals are flashing with intensity.

Retail Forex Vs. Futures

Why Institutions Prefer Managed Futures to Retail Forex

Wheat's Role in the World

The $210B wheat market runs on coordination from fields to futures

Commodities Diverge Again!

Gold Glitters while Gas Flames Out

Powell Exit = Market Shock

Why Removing the Fed Chair Could Trigger a Financial Storm

Copper at a critical stress point

Global tensions, tariffs, tight supply, and rising demand are stretching the copper market to its limits.

S&P E-Minis at Record Highs

The S&P 500 E-mini futures are trading near record highs with a recent doji pattern and two short green candles suggesting a potential pause or reversal. With bullish momentum intact and technical indicators showing strength, traders are watching key support and resistance levels closely.

If you don't have a plan, Your just gambling

Let’s talk about tips-the kind of unsolicited trading advice that shows up after the idea has already moved higher.

Markets Surge, but questions Remain

Corn Futures are at a Crossroad

Prices Near Lows, But Weather Could Stir a Rally

Risk off to Risk On!

Intraday Reversal: From Safe Havens to Stocks

Cocoa Futures Losing Flavor

Supply Recovery Meets Cooling Demand as Prices Test Key Support Levels.

Weak Grounds in the Coffee Market

Oversupply, Weak Demand, and Bearish Technical Indicators Weigh on September Futures

Soybean meal Drifts lower amid global over supply

Bearish Pressure Builds as July Futures Test Key Support

Yields, Metals and The National Guard.

Bond Auctions, Market Signals, Metals and a New Political Undercurrent; California.

The Dollar Cracks while metals Surge

The US Dollar Index Breaks 4-Week Low as Tariff Tensions Ignite Commodity Rally

relief rally as tariff risk is delayed

Markets bounce back as trade tensions cool-but the path forward still has risk.

Tariffs, Turmoil, and Trump: Markets Brace for Fiscal Fallout.

Gold Soars, Yields Retreat, and Energy Slumps as U.S. Policy Uncertainty Weighs on Global Markets.

Moody’s Downgrade Sends Markets Reeling.

Downgrade of U.S. Credit Rating Stokes “Sell America” Sentiment Amid Deficit and Trade War Fears.

Markets Push Higher Despite Shaky Sentiment and Weak Data.

Stocks break out to new 4-week highs, even as consumer sentiment sinks and natural gas retreats.

Markets Rally as U.S. and China slash Tariffs.

Wall Street rallies on surprise breakthrough in U.S.-China trade talks; bond yields rise, oil and tech lead the charge.

With a nearly 100% chance the Fed holds rates steady this week, bond markets struggle under the weight of rising yields and poor technical indicators. 5-5-2025

Equity Rally Faces Doubts as Dollar Weakens.

The Trading desk at Stipelis is monitoring warning signs as equities rally and the greenback loses ground.

5-2-2025

crude reality: oil bulls face selling pressure!

The "Softs" show weakness!

The Stipelis Agricultural Index Indicator finds resistance and pulls back as cocoa leads the downside. risks are mounting.

Rising inventories, falling demand, and bearish charts spell trouble for crude oil.

Commodity Markets Split: Gas rallies, softs stumble.

The commodity markets closed the week with agriculture commodities leading the charge, but today’s session reveals fresh cracks in the rally.

Markets drift higher, but skepticism remains

A mixed bag of moves across commodities and equities, as rallies face resistance and low conviction

Cyclical Commodities take the lead

Coffee, cotton, and silver rally as the equity market bounce continues; The USD remains under pressure.

Crude Rallies, Natty Gas Smells Like Trouble, and Equities Can’t Catch a Break!

Warning Signs across markets

Weakness in Equities, the Dollar, Commodities, and Bonds Paints a Cautious Picture.

Markets in flux

Heavy Selling Pressure Across Markets Sparked Concerns. Signs of Stabilization Emerged.

Tariffs then and now!

How History’s Costliest Tariff Still Echoes in Today’s Economic Debates.