The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Lead while the Dollar slides and Crude Slips
6-30-2025
Global Market Commentary
From The Trading Desk at Stipelis:
The equity market indices are up again, with 2 U.S. Indices at or near all-time highs.
The S&P 500 has recovered completely from the selloff in April due to the tariffs.
On April 7, the Index saw a low of 4830 and has rebounded almost 30% from that point.
The year-to-date return for the S&P 500 is now 5%.
The volume in the futures contract is down over 10% on average, while the index has made a 4-week high which forecast even higher prices.
The NDQ, which is the Nasdaq 100 futures contract has also made a new high and is now sitting at plus 7% for the year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures contract is making an assault on its all-time high but has not breached the 45227 level as of yet.
And the Russell 2000 is also a couple hundred points from its high.
In fact, the Russell 2000 is still negative on the year.
The trading desk would like to see new highs on all of the domestic indices before we give it the green light, but the move in the S&P500 and the NDQ is the kind of news that the desk will take.
The Vix is actually positive on the day, and the US Dollar has continued its bearish slide, marking a new 52-week low during Monday’s trading session.
The Greenback is minus 10% year to date.
Gold, which is up 25% year to date has had some notable selloffs the past few trading sessions, but the upward trend is holding, barely. The 3450 level has cemented itself as overhead resistance.
The Stipelis Bond Index Indicator has been rallying since it hit a low on 5-22-2025.
We can see that by following the 10-year note, which is up 2% from the lows in May. The 10-yr note is up 2.8% year to date and the rally in bonds are pushing yields down.
The Stipelis Yield Index was at 4.388 on 5-22 and is now at 4.23
Or looking at the yield on the 10 yr, which was at 4.54% on May 22nd and is now at 4.29%
Crude Oil has had a wild ride with short-crushing rally to 78, alongside a long bashing sell-off back to 65: Crazy move… within 5 trading sessions, some longs and shorts were both probably carried out.
Crude oil, which is down over 9% year to date has reminded all market participants on how volatile the energy quadrant can be.
Even today, we see a 7% selloff in Natural Gas.
In Agricultural commodities, it’s a mixed bag.
Soybeans finds itself in a short covering rally today after a selloff from the 1080 level just a week ago. The 1080 level appears to be significant resistance in beans.
Meanwhile, sugar continues to sour… sugar is now minus 13% year to date and just barely y above its 52-week low.
The Trading Desk at Stipelis is remaining cautious.
The Desk would like to see confirmation of the bullish move in equities with all indices making all time highs.
We would also like to get a handle on the weakness in the US Dollar. There happens to be a ton of commentary on the weakness in the greenback. None of it to our liking.
The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
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