Corn Prices Near Lows, but Weather Could Stir a Rally
From the Trading Desk at Stipelis:
6-24-2025
Corn Futures at a Crossroad
Prices Near Lows, But Weather Could Stir a Rally!
Corn futures remain under pressure, with the September 2025 contract trading at 416.50 cents per bushel—down nearly 9% year to date. This decline reflects expectations of a record-large U.S. crop, solid growing conditions, and heavy carryover stocks pushing total U.S. corn supply above 17 billion bushels for the 2025–26 marketing year.
Despite recent weakness, corn’s global significance hasn’t changed. The U.S. is forecast to produce 15.82 billion bushels, part of a record 1.265 billion tonnes globally. Nearly 45% of U.S. corn is consumed by the ethanol industry, while livestock feed, exports, and food processing remain key demand channels.
Technically, the market is testing key support zones. September corn has dipped below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages (415.63 and 455.03, respectively), with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40.4, suggesting weakening momentum. The Bollinger Band lower band is just above at 416.75—hinting at an oversold condition.
On the chart, daily resistance stands at 425.08, with major upside targets near 434.50 (weekly pivot) and 453.50 (monthly pivot). Support rests around 413.33 and409.17, with downside target at410.00.
From a trading perspective, corn futures (traded on CME/CBOT) represent 5,000 bushels per contract. Each ¼ cent move equals $12.50, making the contract highly responsive to price swings.
Seasonally, corn futures often rally between May and July, especially during hot, dry spells. The average summer rally over the past 17 years is about 91 cents per bushel, though in high-supply years, the move tends to be more muted (around 40 cents).
Volume remains healthy, with over 487,000 contracts traded and open interest hovering above 1.55 million—a sign of deep liquidity and active speculative participation.
In short, while bearish fundamentals dominate today’s narrative, the technical setup, seasonal history, and weather sensitivity all suggest that corn prices could reverse swiftly if conditions turn unfavorable. Traders and hedgers alike should keep a close eye on resistance levels and forecast volatility into mid-summer.
The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. Member ID 0474441
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Stephen coleman Market Strategist