The Tape Doesn’t Lie

The Market update from the Trading Desk at Stipelis:

For Monday, November 17, 2025

The Tape Doesn’t Lie

The market came into the week looking like it wanted to be tested, but equities weren’t giving up much ground at the open. The major futures held steady even as volatility pushed higher, with the VIX jumping more than 4% intraday. That move normally rattles the floor, yet the indexes barely moved. The S&P futures ticked up, the Nasdaq held a small gain, and the Dow slipped just a touch. It’s the kind of action that tells you equity traders feel in control. They had every excuse to pull back, and they didn’t take it.

The Russell lagged a bit, but even there the selling pressure looked more like hesitation than fear. After the monster YTD gains in the Nasdaq and S&P, the market simply refused to hand back the ball. For now, buyers still call the shots.

Bonds didn’t show much conviction either. The 10-year ticked up only slightly, adding 0.11%. That’s not strength—it’s drifting. Traders aren’t rushing into safety, but they’re not chasing yield either. It’s a holding pattern dressed up as a move. Against that backdrop, it’s hard to take the bond market too seriously right now. It’s reacting, not leading.

Currencies followed the same slow-motion tone. The dollar nudged higher, just 0.14%, but that’s still enough to keep the USD at the front of the FX pack. With the yen breaking a four-week low and the Swiss franc seeing heavy action last session, the message is clear: capital keeps leaning toward the dollar even without dramatic catalysts. FX traders like direction, and the dollar keeps giving them just enough of one.

Commodities brought the real drama. Metals had a rough outing—silver got cracked for nearly five percent on friday, gold followed with more selling today. But when you’re up 73% and 55% YTD, a pullback doesn’t scare anyone. This is a market that’s been sprinting for months, and it finally caught its breath. Natural gas also cooled off, dropping over two percent intraday, and lumber stayed under pressure. Energy markets at least showed some fight on Friday, with crude up over 2%, heating oil and RBOB right behind it. But today the move stalled out, with crude barely positive. It’s trying, but there’s no authority in the tape yet.

Then we hit ags—and that’s where the story flips.

Soybeans delivered the kind of reversal that wakes up even the most tired desk. Friday they were hammered, down nearly 2%. Today? They surged more than 2.5% intraday, breaking a four-week high in the process. Wheat joined the party with a 3% jump. Meal and oil followed. When the entire complex moves in sync, and beans lead with that kind of force, it’s not a random bounce. It’s a statement. That’s the kind of tape that says traders mispriced the selloff and had to scramble to correct it.

Friday’s volume leaders—gold, corn, cocoa—showed where money flowed. But today’s action told you where attention shifted. Soybeans didn’t just reverse; they took control.

The broader commodity index ticked higher, but ags stole the spotlight. From metals cracking to energy leaning higher, to soybeans ripping straight through resistance, this was a day where the grains refused to sit quietly.

Equities steady. Bonds muted. FX firm. Metals shaken. And soybeans making sure everyone knows exactly who’s driving the narrative.

Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. Member ID 0474441

The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.