The Macro View
From The Trading View at Stipelis
Monday, January 26, 2026
The Dollar Weakens
Global markets are adjusting to a sharp shift in interest-rate conditions, rising cross-border risk, and renewed volatility across commodities and currencies. Mortgage rates falling below 6% mark a clear break from 2025 conditions and may reopen activity in housing and refinancing. Lower rates ease pressure on consumers, but they also raise questions about growth durability if inflation remains sticky.
Outside the U.S., stress in Japan’s bond market sent shockwaves through global rates. A sudden spike in long-term Japanese yields raised fears that domestic investors may pull capital back home. Given Japan’s scale, even small reallocations can ripple through global bond and currency markets. The sharp swings in the yen underscored how sensitive markets are to policy signals and intervention risk.
Risk appetite weakened in crypto markets as macro uncertainty resurfaced. Broad declines across digital assets reflected a defensive shift rather than asset-specific news. Large liquidations reinforced the view that leverage remains vulnerable when volatility rises.
U.S. equities showed mixed signals. Earnings results were uneven, highlighting a growing gap between winners and losers. Financials and select industrial names struggled, while others held up better. Despite isolated strength, weekly losses across major indexes suggest investors are cautious ahead of central-bank guidance.
Commodities stood out as a key area of leadership. Energy and metals posted strong gains, with natural gas, silver, and heating oil breaking multi-week highs. These moves suggest supply concerns, weather risk, and currency weakness are back in focus. At the same time, agricultural markets showed pressure, pointing to softer demand and improved supply expectations.
Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve meeting remains the primary near-term risk event. While rates are expected to stay steady, commentary around future cuts, inflation progress, and labor trends will shape direction across asset classes. For now, markets appear caught between relief from lower rates and concern over global instability.
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The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
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