Energy and Metals Lead
From The Trading Desk at Stipelis
The Stipelis NAV Report for Friday, January 23, 2026
Markets delivered a clear message today:
commodities are back in focus, and currency weakness is amplifying those moves. Across energy, metals, and select agricultural markets, bullish momentum was broad and decisive. At the same time, equity risk appetite showed cracks, while the U.S. dollar slipped to a four-week low. Together, these moves point to a market leaning defensive, with capital rotating toward tangible assets.
Silver led the charge, jumping nearly 7% and breaking to a four-week high. This type of move often reflects more than industrial demand. It signals growing concern around currency stability and long-term purchasing power. Gold also pushed higher, reinforcing the theme. When both metals rise together, it often reflects investors seeking alternatives to paper assets.
Energy markets were another standout. Natural gas surged close to 6%, extending a strong winter-driven trend. Heating oil, crude oil, and RBOB gasoline all posted solid gains. This cluster of strength suggests more than weather alone. Energy markets appear to be pricing in tighter supply expectations and a weaker dollar, which typically supports higher commodity prices.
Agricultural markets also leaned bullish. Wheat and corn both advanced, with wheat breaking a four-week high. These moves tend to reflect concerns around global supply chains, weather uncertainty, and currency impacts on export pricing. A softer dollar generally makes U.S. crops more competitive abroad, adding upward pressure to prices.
Copper joined the upside, another signal worth watching. Copper often acts as a bridge between economic growth expectations and inflation trends. Strength here suggests markets are not fully pricing in a sharp global slowdown, even as risk sentiment remains fragile.
On the currency side, weakness in the U.S. dollar played a central role. Dollar futures broke to a four-week low, while the euro, pound, Swiss franc, and Australian dollar all moved higher. This tells us the move was not isolated. Capital rotated away from the dollar and toward foreign currencies and hard assets.
Several forces are driving this shift. Geopolitical tensions earlier in the week triggered a risk-off reaction that continues to ripple through markets. While volatility has eased, confidence has not fully returned. At the same time, expectations for U.S. rate cuts later this year are weighing on the dollar’s yield advantage. Lower expected rates reduce the appeal of holding dollar-denominated assets.
There is also a broader trend at work. The dollar entered 2026 already under pressure after a weak 2025. Fiscal concerns, narrowing yield gaps, and increased global hedging have all contributed. Today’s decline appears to be an extension of that longer-term move, not a one-day anomaly.
Notably, safe-haven flows favored gold rather than the dollar. That shift matters. When gold absorbs risk-off demand, it often signals deeper questions about policy credibility and long-term currency strength.
On the bearish side, cocoa posted a sharp drop, continuing its volatile reversal after last year’s surge. Lumber and sugar also slipped, while the Russell 2000 fell over 2%. Small-cap equities often struggle when rates, energy costs, and uncertainty rise together. Today’s move fits that pattern.
Overall, the market tone favors real assets over financial ones. Commodities breaking to multi-week highs while equities lag and the dollar falls is a combination traders watch closely. It does not signal panic, but it does suggest a shift in leadership that deserves attention.
The Trading Desk at Stipelis
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.
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The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
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