Intermarket Trends Flash Mixed Warnings
From the Trading Desk at Stipelis
The Macro View -Global Market Moves across Asset Classes
October 6, 2025
Markets rarely move in isolation. Intermarket analysis reminds us that the U.S. dollar, commodities, bonds, and equities all dance together in patterns that reveal more than headline numbers suggest.
Today, the dollar index sits lower at 97.42, down over 10% year-to-date. Historically, a falling dollar supports commodities, and we see that in metals, which are up 46% YTD. The Commodity Index gained 0.44% today, while energy lags with crude slipping again. This divergence within commodities hints at selective investor positioning—hedging with gold while reducing risk in growth-sensitive energy.
Bond prices fell modestly (-0.12%), reflecting pressure from rising yields. Intermarket theory suggests falling bonds are typically bearish for stocks, yet equities closed higher, with the index at 8,923, up 11.47% on the year. Stocks and bonds moving in opposite directions isn’t unusual, but the bond market often leads equities. That makes recent weakness in bonds worth watching.
The cycle assessment adds more context. Valuations remain stretched, with equities trading near historic highs and credit spreads uncomfortably tight. Investor psychology shows that the fear of missing out is still in charge, particularly in technology and AI, though caution is creeping in. Risk appetite is bifurcated: money still chases speculative themes, but gold’s rise underscores defensive demand.
Capital remains available but more selective. IPO activity has cooled, and private equity faces higher financing costs. This suggests we are in a late-cycle environment: enthusiasm persists, but the easy conditions that fueled the rally are slowly eroding.
The bond market’s caution should not be ignored. If yields continue higher, both equities and credit could feel pressure. Meanwhile, the falling dollar supports commodities, but a persistent decline may ultimately weigh on both stocks and bonds if inflation expectations rise.
Overall, the intermarket picture and the cycle framework align: markets are late-cycle, euphoric on the surface, yet flashing warning signals beneath. Investors should recognize that pendulums swing—confidence rarely lasts forever. Preparation, not prediction, remains the best defense.
Stephen Coleman – Head Market Strategist
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The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
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