Oversupply, Weak Demand, and Bearish Technical Indicators Weigh on September Futures
Date: 6-17-2025
From the Trading Desk at Stipelis Global Trading LLC:
Coffee futures (September) are trading under pressure as improved crop prospects, softening global demand, and technical breakdowns drive the market lower. With prices near key support and momentum indicators deeply oversold, traders are watching closely for signs of stabilization or further downside.
Coffee Futures
| Size | 37,000 Pounds |
| Quote | Dollars/Cents per Ton |
| multiplier | 375.00 |
| Minimum Tick | $18.75(5/100ths of cent) |
Contract: September
Current Price: 331.40
About Coffee:
Coffee is one of the world’s most widely consumed beverages, prized for its stimulating caffeine content, and is a cornerstone of global food culture, with a market valued at nearly $100 billion in 2024 and strong growth projected in the years ahead. Coffee futures are actively traded to manage price risk and speculation, reflecting the commodity’s importance to producers, traders, and consumers worldwide.
Summary:
Coffee futures continue to slide, with the September contract trading at 331.40, down 2.60% on the day and hovering near key support zones.
Prices are approaching the lower boundary of their recent trading envelope and sitting just above a level where buying interest has previously emerged;—signs that the market may be nearing short-term exhaustion.
Measures of trend strength and buying pressure remain subdued, while gauges that track price acceleration show the market is deeply oversold but not yet attempting a reversal.
Recent price action has slipped below commonly watched short-term reference levels, reinforcing the presence of overhead resistance.
Unless the market can reclaim higher ground—particularly around areas where past trading activity has centered—any bullish momentum will likely remain constrained.
Trading activity has been relatively light, with yesterday’s volume falling 26% below average, pointing to reduced participation.
This lower engagement suggests buyers may be on the sidelines, while a drop in the number of outstanding contracts indicates that earlier long positions are likely being exited.
Meanwhile, the daily price range remains wide, consistent with the increased volatility that has characterized recent sessions.
From a broader perspective, fundamentals are reinforcing the bearish tone.
Brazil’s harvest is proceeding smoothly with minimal frost risk, and rains in Vietnam have relieved earlier drought concerns—particularly for robusta.
On the demand side, global consumption has softened slightly amid economic concerns and a stronger U.S. dollar, which raises costs for importing nations.
Technical damage has been significant. The market is well below the 50-day MA at 367.59, and speculative money appears to be stepping back.
Without new catalysts, the path of least resistance may remain lower, especially with Monthly Support 1 at 324.43 and Support 2 at 306.42 in view.
Despite all of this, coffee futures are still up 3.64% year-to-date, hinting that the longer-term picture may remain constructive if global supply dynamics shift or demand improves.
Until then, the September contract remains vulnerable, with sellers in control and traders watching the 330–324 zone closely for signs of a base or further capitulation.
The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. Member ID 0474441
THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER
SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
Stephen Coleman 6-17-2025