Bearish Pressure Builds as July Futures Test Key Support
From the Trading Desk at Stipelis Global Trading LLC
Soybean Meal
| Size | 100 Short Tons |
| Quote | Dollars/Cents per Ton |
| multiplier | 100.00 |
| Minimum Tick | 10.00 |
Date: 6-16-2025
Contract: Soybean Meal (July)
Current Price: 285.40
About Soybean Meal
Soybean meal is mainly used to feed farm animals due to its high protein content, and the market is valued at over $100 billion globally, with strong growth expected in the coming years.
Summary:
Soybean meal futures are hovering near 52-week lows as a result of persistent oversupply and sluggish demand.
Strong harvests in key producers like the U.S. and Brazil have led to abundant soybean stocks, pressuring prices lower.
At the same time, demand growth has lagged, particularly in regions with slower livestock expansion.
Depressed soybean prices, which directly affect soybean meal as a byproduct, have added further downside.
Broader macroeconomic concerns—such as currency volatility and uncertainty in major importers—have also weighed on sentiment.
These combined factors have created a bearish environment for soybean meal prices.
Technical Landscape – Soybean Meal (July)
- Trend Position: Below key moving averages (currently trading at 285.40, which is under the 50-day MA of 293.93, the 200-day MA of 302.31, and Bollinger Midline of 294.00)
- Momentum: Weak – Stochastics are deeply oversold (%K at 2, %D at 13) with RSI at 24, suggesting bearish momentum but also a potential setup for a reversal if price stabilizes
- Volatility/Range: ATR of 4 points to moderate-to-wide daily ranges; recent downside action aligns with increased intraday movement
- Volume & Open Interest: Above 20-day averages (volume 241,743 vs avg 145,809; OI 612,327 vs avg 599,942), indicating strong participation on the sell-off.
- Support/Resistance Zones: Trading just above key support at 285.73 (Daily S3) and near Bollinger lower band (284.00); major resistance begins near 294.00
Bias: Bearish (short-term), but near-term exhaustion possible
Trade Trigger: Watch for a reversal signal or bullish divergence near 285–284 zone; failing that, breakdown through 284 opens room toward bearish forecast of 281.57
Risk Level: Medium-Wide (support levels are tight, but downside risk could extend to weekly support 3 around 282.27 or beyond).
Stephen Coleman head market Strategist
The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. Member ID 0474441
THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE
SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER
SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.