Market Breathes after pullback
The Strategy Session
From The Trading Desk at Stipelis
Volatility Fades as stocks Rebound
11-5-2025
Markets opened steadier today after Tuesday’s sharp selloff. The U.S. Dollar Index extended slightly higher to 100.13 (+0.06%), but its momentum appears to be cooling. After several sessions of dollar-driven pressure, commodities are showing selective signs of recovery, led by energy and softs.
Heating Oil hit a new four-week high at 2.477 (+1.33%), while Natural Gas extended gains to 4.34 (+1.80%). Coffee added 1.71%, confirming that not all commodity markets are bowing to the dollar’s strength. On the other side, livestock markets remained weak, with Feeder Cattle down 1.74% and Live Cattle off 1.50%.
Broadly, today’s pattern suggests a pause in the risk-off tone that dominated early in the week. The VIX fell 4.7%, signaling reduced volatility as equities stabilized—the S&P 500 rebounded 0.31% intraday, recovering part of Tuesday’s losses. Metals also ticked higher, up 0.56% as traders tested value levels following recent declines in Gold and Copper.
Sector rotation remains the key theme. Energy continues to outperform, breaking multi-week highs as crude and refined products benefit from colder weather demand and tightening inventories. Agricultural markets, while still mixed, saw supportive price action in Wheat (+1.24%) and Soybeans (+0.58%), hinting at underlying demand resilience.
In currencies, the dollar’s advance is bumping against resistance near 100.20, while the euro and Swiss franc continue to weaken—both breaking four-week lows. This divergence underscores the dollar’s relative strength rather than outright buying pressure. Should the Fed’s liquidity injections continue as planned in December, the dollar may plateau rather than surge, allowing commodities to regain footing into year-end.
Technically, the Stipelis Commodity Index sits at 1.0296, essentially flat but holding above its mid-range. RSI remains neutral, and ADX near 18 suggests weak trend intensity—conditions ideal for tactical, range-based strategies. Support is seen at 1.010, resistance near 1.030.
The takeaway: Tuesday’s losses triggered a rebalancing, not a breakdown. Dollar firmness persists but lacks fresh catalysts, giving commodities room to breathe. For now, traders may favor relative strength plays—long Heating Oil, Coffee, or Wheat—while staying defensive in metals and livestock until stronger momentum develops.
Liquidity, volatility, and currency flows will continue to shape the trade landscape into year-end. The key is flexibility, not conviction. Let’s stay in touch. Let’s follow these markets together.
Stephen Coleman
Founder and Commodity Trading Advisor
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. Member ID Number 0474441
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The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.