Navigating the Week with Stipelis
From the Trading Desk at Stipelis
The Stipelis NAV Report
11-7-2025
What happens when inflation rises while unemployment also ticks up? It’s uncommon, but not impossible—economists call this stagflation, a situation where price pressures persist even as growth slows.
Gold is rallying. Why? It could reflect inflation hedging, safe-haven demand, or technical momentum. The US Dollar Index is down year-to-date but has bounced near the 100 level, testing a technical resistance point. Investors may see this as either a pause or a potential turning point.
The Fed’s early end to quantitative tightening adds complexity. By reinvesting maturing Treasurys into short-term bills, liquidity is effectively returning. Historically, rising liquidity can support risk assets, though valuations and macro conditions remain important.
This week, our Commodity Index kept a bullish bias despite dollar strength, indicating underlying demand or positioning. Not all commodities behaved the same: metals softened, softs like sugar and cocoa saw notable moves, and energy showed resilience.
Positioning requires alignment with macro conditions rather than speculation. Rising liquidity may favor assets that benefit from capital inflows. Dollar strength or weakness can shift commodity opportunities. Volatility spikes call for disciplined hedging.
CTAs offer a systematic approach that can provide uncorrelated returns and risk management discipline—helping portfolios navigate turbulent markets.
We ask: Are you positioned for inflation and rising unemployment? Are your holdings diversified across sectors sensitive to currency and liquidity shifts? Are risk controls in place?
At Stipelis, we help answer these questions with data, discipline, and a structured framework—preparing investors for the next phase, not the next tick.
Stephen Coleman
Founder and Registered Commodity Trading Advisor
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. Member ID Number 0474441
THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.