Commodities Diverge Again: Gold Glitters, Gas chokes!
7-21-2025
From The Trading Desk at Stipelis
Commodities Diverge Again: Gold Glitters, Gas Guts Out
Today’s market action painted a vivid picture of divergence across the commodity landscape. While some assets surged to new highs, others plunged, underscoring the importance of active management and tactical positioning.
Winners and Losers
Cocoa led the bullish charge, jumping 3.18% to close at 8048.00. This move continues cocoa’s volatile but upward trend, driven by tight supply and persistent demand. Meanwhile, feeder cattle broke a 4-week high, rising 1.18%—a sign of strength in the livestock complex.
On the flip side, natural gas was the day’s biggest loser, falling a sharp 7.10% to 3.31. This drop not only erased recent gains but also pushed the market to a 4-week low. Energy as a whole struggled, with the Energy Index down 2.08%, reflecting broader weakness in the sector.
Sector Snapshot
Metals were the standout, with the Metals Index up 1.35%, supported by strong moves in gold, copper, and silver. Gold rose 1.5% intraday and is now up an impressive 27% year-to-date. Copper and silver weren’t far behind, up 39% and 31% YTD, respectively. These gains reflect both macroeconomic uncertainty and renewed industrial demand.
Other sectors showed mixed performance:
- Bond Index: +0.48%
- Forex: +0.46%
- Equity Index: +0.14%
- Ags Index: -0.50%
- Commodity Index: -0.52%
- Dollar Index: -0.60%
Equity Indices: A Mixed Bag
While the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have all recently hit new highs, the Russell 2000 remains a laggard. This divergence suggests that while large-cap tech and industrials are thriving, small-cap stocks are still grappling with tighter credit conditions and uneven economic growth.
What It Means
Today’s action reinforces the value of diversification and the need to stay nimble. In a world where cocoa and gold can soar while natural gas collapses, static portfolios risk missing opportunities—or worse, absorbing unnecessary losses.
For managed futures strategies, this is the kind of environment where trend-following and tactical allocation can shine. Volatility creates opportunity—but only for those positioned to capture it.
Stephen Coleman
Head Market Strategist