A mixed bag of moves across commodities and equities, as rallies face resistance and low conviction.
Yesterday trading session offered a modestly bullish tone across several key markets. Soybean oil surged more than 3.5%, marking one of the day’s standout performances on the commodity side. In equities, the Nasdaq led with a 2.75% gain, followed by the s&p 500 e-minis up 2% and the Russell 2000 up 1.99%. The rally was broad but lacked meaningful follow-through in terms of volume or momentum.
On the downside, natural gas remains under heavy pressure—now down in 12 of the last 15 sessions, including eight consecutive red days. This relentless selloff is creating a divergence in the broader energy complex, especially with heating oil rising 1.31% today.
Cocoa also continues to rally strongly, up 2.86% today, and lean hogs gained 1.25%, now pushing up against their 4-week highs. Feeder cattle are also performing, reflecting broader strength in the livestock sector.
Today, on the metals side, gold and silver are both off more than 1%, a notable drop given their recent run-up. Meanwhile, lumber is starting to attract attention, with yesterday’s volume clocking in 40% above its 20-day average—suggesting possible renewed interest or repositioning.
The volatility index has retreated to 25, reflecting a calmer tone, while the 10-year Treasury yield dropped 8 basis points, offering some support to rate-sensitive assets.
Despite the broad-based equity rally, the Stipelis Proprietary Equity Index is flashing mixed signals. While price action remains constructive, several key indicators are showing signs of exhaustion. Volume, in particular, has been underwhelming, and without a breakout above major resistance levels, conviction remains low.
We remain cautiously positioned. Until we see a definitive move above key technical thresholds, these rallies—however welcome—should be viewed with skepticism.
From the Trading Desk, 4-25-2025