Buyers Stay Cautious
The Market update from the Trading Desk at Stipelis
Wednesday, November 19, 2025
The equity markets continue to send a clear message: momentum is fading. A few days ago, the Russell 2000 broke below its four-week low, and today the Dow Jones futures followed with a break of their own. When two major indices slip under important short-term floors, it often signals that sellers are gaining control and the market tone is shifting.
Yesterday’s closing action reflected that pressure. The E-Mini S&P 500 finished at 6639.75, down 0.78%. The Dow closed at 46184, losing 1.03%, and the Nasdaq 100 fell 1.14%. Even with today’s mild intraday bounce in the S&P and Nasdaq, the market still carries a cautious feel. The Equity Index is slightly lower intraday at -0.09%, and the monthly performance for the broader equity basket sits at -1.34%.
The VIX remains one of the biggest standout indicators. It closed yesterday at 24.69, up more than 10% on the day and over 42% year-to-date. Today the index dipped intraday, but volatility is still elevated and continues to shape market behavior. When swings increase, traders tend to reduce exposure, and the past few days reflect that pattern clearly.
Looking across the other indices, metals are firm intraday while the Dollar continues to trade higher. Crude oil is under pressure again, down more than 2% today. Weakness in energy often weighs on sentiment for cyclicals, which feeds into the broader hesitation inside equities. The Commodity Index is positive year-to-date, but both the Equity and Energy indices are negative on the week.
Volume and range figures add more context. Equity volume sits at only 8% of total index flow, showing that the market’s attention has shifted toward the Dollar, Energy, and broader commodities. Range tells a different story: equities are running at 25% of total range, meaning traders are reacting to the moves without fully committing capital.
Even with soft action, the year-to-date numbers for equities remain positive at 9.22%. The Nasdaq still leads the pack this year, up more than 15%. But the recent breaks in the RTY and YM underline the shift in short-term direction. Until buyers regain control and push back above key levels, equities may stay in a choppy, defensive phase.
Stephen Coleman
Founder – Stipelis Global Trading LLC
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.
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