From the Trading Desk at Stipelis
The Strategy Session-Futures, Sectors and Tactical Market Insights.
Wednesday, July 15, 2026
The market conversation in 2026 has largely centered on equities, and for good reason. Major stock indexes remain well above where they started the year. The Nasdaq 100 is up more than 17% year to date, while the Russell 2000 has gained more than 19%. At the same time, the Stipelis Equity Index has rallied nearly 20% since late March and recently reached a short-term high near 10,300. Yesterday’s close left the index sitting directly on its bullish trend line, an area that may deserve attention in the days ahead.
One development that stands out is the continued weakness in bonds. The Stipelis Bond Index remains below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a condition that has been in place for some time. Meanwhile, the Stipelis Yield Index has moved from 3.77 to 4.25, a rise of nearly 50 basis points.
Higher yields do not automatically translate into weaker stock prices, but they can affect how investors evaluate risk and opportunity. After a strong advance in equities, rising financing costs and higher bond yields may create a different backdrop than the one that supported markets earlier in the year. That does not imply a major turning point is underway. It simply reflects changing conditions that deserve observation.
Another piece of the puzzle is the U.S. Dollar Index. The dollar recently rallied toward the 101.50 area before showing signs of becoming stretched on a short-term basis. Today’s decline pushed the index back toward 100.20 after recent gains.
A slowing dollar rally does not guarantee strength in commodities, but historically, commodity markets often become more competitive when dollar strength begins to moderate. For market observers looking beyond stocks, this relationship is worth monitoring as the second half of the year unfolds.
While much of the financial media remains focused on stocks, the commodity complex has quietly improved. The Stipelis Commodity Index is now up 13.69% year to date, while the Energy Index has gained more than 47% this year. Agricultural markets have also begun showing signs of stabilization, with the Stipelis Agriculture Index bouncing from its earlier lows.
Looking beneath the index level reveals broad participation. Wheat is up more than 27% this year. Soybeans have gained nearly 18%, soybean oil more than 45%, cotton nearly 26%, and live cattle more than 20%. Not every agricultural market is moving higher, but the overall picture appears more balanced than it did several months ago.
One of the more interesting questions is whether the next decade looks different from the last one. From 2010 through much of the early 2020s, technology and growth-oriented equities dominated the investment landscape. Today, however, investors are dealing with a world shaped by supply chain concerns, energy transition demands, infrastructure spending, and changing geopolitical relationships.
Those factors do not guarantee commodity leadership. Markets rarely move in straight lines. However, they may help explain why commodities, agriculture, energy, and other real assets are attracting renewed interest after spending years outside the spotlight.
The current market environment appears to be sending a message. Bond weakness, rising yields, a dollar rally that may be losing momentum, and improving commodity trends are occurring at the same time. When several pieces begin moving together, it often makes sense to pay attention.
For now, equities remain in longer-term uptrends, but some signs of fatigue are emerging after a substantial advance. Meanwhile, commodities are showing improving participation across multiple sectors. Whether that develops into a larger trend remains to be seen, but the relationship between financial assets and real assets appears increasingly relevant as 2026 moves forward.
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The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
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