From the Trading Desk at Stipelis
Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Stocks bounced back today after a quieter close on Monday. Monday’s session had ended on a soft note, with the S&P 500 down 0.18%, the Dow off 0.58%, and the Russell 2000 down 0.62%, while the Nasdaq 100 held roughly flat. Today reversed that tone in a hurry, with a broad rally across stocks, oil, and gold that lifted nearly every asset class we track.
The Nasdaq 100 led the gains, up 1.83% on the day, climbing from an open near 28,778 to close at 29,305.25, after trading as high as 29,364.75. The S&P 500 rose 0.78%, moving from an open of 7,484.00 to close at 7,543.00, with an intraday high of 7,554.00. The Dow gained 0.69%, up 357 points to 52,430, after touching a high of 52,590. Small caps outperformed too, with the Russell 2000 up 1.37% to close near 2,995.80, off an intraday high of 2,999.80. Across the board, today’s gains were broad enough to erase Monday’s pullback and then some.
Even before today’s rally, the bigger picture for 2026 was already strong. Through Monday’s close, the S&P 500 was up 8.59% year to date, the Dow had gained 7.73%, the Nasdaq 100 led the group at 13.05%, and the Russell 2000 had climbed an impressive 18.30% since January. Today’s move adds further to those totals.
Commodities joined the rally in a big way. Crude oil climbed 2.09 dollars, or 2.53%, to close at 84.57, after swinging between a low of 81.39 and a high of 85.03 during the day. That’s a notable range for a single session. Oil remains the standout performer of the year, already up more than 43% year to date coming into today, and today’s move builds on that trend. Gold moved higher too, gaining 73.10 dollars, or 1.82%, to close at 4,089, after trading between 4,003.30 and 4,092.50, even though the metal is still down for the year overall.
Bonds moved the other way, as investors leaned more toward stocks and commodities. The 10 year note futures contract slipped 0.19%, closing at 108.65625 after opening near 108.906 and touching a low of 108.578. That lines up with yields ticking a bit higher on the day. This kind of move often shows up when investors rotate out of safer assets and into stocks and commodities during a rally like today’s.
The Dollar Index firmed up as well, gaining 0.22% to close near 101, after trading between 100.68 and 101.03. That adds to a year that has already seen the dollar rise close to 3% coming into today. A firmer dollar can make imported goods a bit cheaper but can also weigh on the profits that big US companies earn overseas.
Volatility barely budged despite all the movement elsewhere. The VIX opened at 18.90, traded between 17.41 and 18.94 during the day, and closed essentially flat at 18.65, unchanged on the session. That’s a bit unusual for a day with this much movement in stocks and commodities, and it suggests options markets didn’t see today’s rally as a sign of new turbulence ahead, just a strong session across risk assets. Zooming out to the sector picture over the past week and month, energy had a rough stretch heading into today, with the Energy Index down 2.48% for both the week and the month, even though it remains up an eye catching 47.49% year to date. Today’s jump in oil prices may help offset some of that recent softness, though a single day doesn’t erase a multi week trend. The Commodity Index sits up 13.09% year to date, the Metals Index is up 0.75% on the week but still down 7.96% for the year, and the Bond Index has slipped 3.60% year to date as yields have moved higher.
Trading volume and range data through the week show a pullback in activity across bonds, the dollar, metals, and forex, while energy volume ticked up modestly and metals saw a wider trading range than usual. That kind of shift can simply reflect where attention and money have been flowing over the week, rather than pointing to a bigger underlying trend.
Put together, today marked a clear turnaround from Monday’s softer close. Stocks, oil, and gold all pushed higher, bond prices eased as yields ticked up, the dollar firmed, and volatility stayed calm through it all. Energy and commodities remain the standout areas of 2026 on a year to date basis, and today’s broad based session added meaningfully to those gains. As always, this is simply a snapshot of where things stand today, not a signal of where markets are headed next.
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