From The Trading Desk at Stipelis
One of the biggest mistakes people make when watching markets is focusing on only one area at a time.
A person may watch stocks. Another may follow gold. Someone else may spend the day looking at interest rates. While each of those areas can be important, none exists on its own.
Markets are connected.
A move in energy prices can affect transportation costs. Changes in interest rates can influence borrowing throughout the economy. Currency movements can impact global trade. Shifts in credit conditions can affect business activity and consumer confidence.
That is why the Trading Desk at Stipelis takes a wider view.
Every day, throughout the day, our research process follows 47 commodity markets, the entire U.S. Treasury yield curve, seven major currencies, volatility measures, credit conditions, proprietary market indicators, and more than fifty economic indicators.
The goal is not to find a magic indicator.
The goal is to develop a better understanding of what different areas of the market are saying at the same time.
Often, the most valuable information comes from observing how markets interact with one another.
Watching the Pulse of the Economy
Among the indicators monitored by the Trading Desk are several Treasury market relationships.
These include:
2-Year / 3-Month
10-Year / 3-Month
10-Year / 1-Year
10-Year / 2-Year
30-Year / 3-Month
SOFR / 3-Month Treasury relationships
While the names may sound technical, the idea is simple.
These relationships help provide context about how different parts of the financial system are behaving. Rather than focusing on a single interest rate, the research process looks at how rates compare with one another.
The Trading Desk also monitors the U.S. Dollar, which remains one of the most important financial benchmarks in the world.
Movements in the dollar can influence commodities, global trade, and capital flows. For that reason, it remains an important piece of the broader market picture.
No single measure provides all the answers.
However, when multiple indicators begin pointing in a similar direction, the information often becomes more meaningful.
That is why broad observation remains such an important part of the process.
Why Credit Conditions Matter
Credit conditions are another important area of focus.
One indicator monitored closely is the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread.
The name is long, but the basic concept is straightforward.
This measure provides insight into how comfortable or cautious participants are within the credit markets.
The Trading Desk does not view this indicator in isolation. Instead, it is examined alongside Treasury market relationships, volatility measures, economic indicators, and commodity activity.
Sometimes markets send a consistent message.
Sometimes they send mixed signals.
Both situations can be informative.
Research often becomes most valuable when different indicators are compared together rather than separately.
The ability to view these relationships side by side helps create a more complete understanding of the market environment.
The purpose is not to forecast certainty.
The purpose is to gather evidence and observe conditions objectively.
Finding Strength and Weakness Every Day
One of the most powerful aspects of the Trading Desk research process is the ability to scan markets daily.
This allows us to identify:
Markets rising the most
Markets declining the most
Markets experiencing increased activity
Markets showing reduced activity
Markets displaying larger price ranges
Markets displaying smaller price ranges
This process helps separate movement that may be meaningful from movement that may simply be noise.
Instead of looking at one market at a time, the entire group can be viewed together.
Patterns often become easier to identify when comparisons are made across dozens of markets rather than a single chart.
A commodity moving higher may be interesting.
Several commodities moving higher together may provide additional context.
The same can be said for weakness.
By observing broad participation across markets, the Trading Desk gains a clearer perspective on where activity is concentrated and where it is fading.
That perspective forms an important part of the daily research effort.
Why Commodities Matter
Commodities influence everyday life more than many people realize.
Energy helps power homes, businesses, and transportation.
Agricultural products feed populations around the world.
Industrial metals are used in manufacturing, construction, technology, and infrastructure.
When commodity markets change, those changes can often reflect broader developments taking place throughout the economy.
That is one reason commodities remain such a central focus at Stipelis.
Following forty-seven commodity markets provides a unique view into global economic activity.
Each market tells its own story.
When several stories begin telling a similar narrative, valuable insights can emerge.
The Trading Desk also follows the Gold-Silver Ratio, which has historically served as another useful way to observe changing relationships within the precious metals sector.
As with every other indicator, the value comes from context rather than prediction.
Observation remains the priority.
Why Research Depth Matters
Strong research is not about having one indicator.
It is about building a framework that allows many indicators to be viewed together.
At Stipelis, the research process spans commodities, interest rates, currencies, volatility measures, credit conditions, economic indicators, and proprietary research tools.
That reach creates perspective.
The objective is to understand not only what is happening within a single market, but how developments across multiple markets connect with one another.
Markets are constantly changing.
New information emerges every day.
A disciplined research process helps organize that information into a broader view of the environment.
That is one reason investors choose Stipelis.
The focus is not on chasing headlines.
The focus is on maintaining a broad, consistent, and objective view of the markets through daily observation.
No research process removes uncertainty.
What it can do is help replace assumptions with evidence.
And in today’s markets, that can make all the difference.
Stephen Coleman – Founder and Head Market Strategist
Further Reading: The View from 30k feet