The Stipelis NAV Report
From the Trading Desk at Stipelis
Friday, July 10, 2026
The first half of 2026 has produced some interesting leadership shifts across global markets. While investors often focus on stock indexes and central bank decisions, the strongest moves this year have largely come from the commodity sector. Energy markets in particular have stood out, with gasoline, heating oil, and crude oil posting some of the strongest year-to-date gains among the major markets we monitor. According to this week’s data, RBOB gasoline is up more than 77% year to date, heating oil is up more than 68%, and crude oil has gained over 25%.
At the same time, many markets that captured investor attention during previous years have struggled to maintain the same momentum. Gold is down over 6% year to date, silver is down nearly 14%, and Treasury markets have also experienced modest declines.
This divergence is an important reminder that market leadership constantly changes. The strongest-performing market of one year does not automatically remain the leader the following year. Market trends rotate, and different sectors respond differently to changes in economic conditions, inflation expectations, interest rates, and investor sentiment.
Looking across the broader commodity landscape, strength has not been limited to energy alone. Soybean oil, cotton, wheat, soybeans, and lean hogs have all posted positive gains this year. The agricultural sector index is showing an 11.36% gain year to date, while the broader commodity index is up 12.32%.
Equity markets have also continued their advance. The Russell 2000 is up more than 20% this year, while the Nasdaq 100 has gained over 17%. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average have also produced solid year-to-date returns. These gains have occurred even as volatility readings remain relatively subdued. The VIX closed near 15.84 on July 9, suggesting that market participants remain generally comfortable with current conditions.
One of the more notable developments this year has been the contrast between commodities and traditional defensive assets. Historically, many investors have looked to bonds and precious metals during periods of uncertainty. Yet in 2026, leadership has come from areas that directly benefit from strong demand and rising prices. Energy products have been the clearest example of this trend.
For commodity trading advisors, periods like this highlight the value of maintaining a broad view across markets. Opportunities do not always appear where investors expect them. A portfolio focused solely on stocks, bonds, or a single commodity sector can miss important developments occurring elsewhere.
One reason managed futures programs have attracted attention over the years is their ability to participate in multiple asset classes. Commodity markets, currencies, stock indexes, and fixed-income markets each respond to different economic forces. When trends emerge, those trends can develop in places that many investors are not actively watching.
The sector data from this week provides a useful example. Energy remains the strongest-performing major sector with a year-to-date gain of 36.71%. Agricultural products and broad commodity measures are also showing double-digit gains. Meanwhile, bond and metals indexes remain negative for the year.
This type of dispersion is often where systematic approaches can demonstrate value. Rather than relying on predictions or opinions, systematic methodologies focus on observing market behavior as it develops. When markets trend higher, lower, or move sideways, the objective is to evaluate those conditions consistently across a wide range of markets.
Friday’s trading session reflected the mixed environment currently in place. Equity indexes finished higher during the day, while crude oil, gold, Treasury notes, and volatility measures were weaker. No single narrative dominated the session. Instead, different sectors continued responding to their own supply, demand, and economic influences.
As we move deeper into the second half of 2026, market leadership remains concentrated in several commodity sectors while broader equity markets continue to maintain positive momentum. Whether those trends persist is something the market itself will determine over time.
For now, the data continues to show that diversification across multiple asset classes remains relevant. Markets rarely move in perfect alignment. Some sectors advance while others lag. That reality helps explain why managed futures strategies have historically been studied as potential portfolio diversifiers during a variety of economic environments, including periods of inflation, rising interest rates, and changing volatility conditions.
The lesson from this year is straightforward. Leadership rotates, trends evolve, and opportunities often emerge where few people are looking. The role of a disciplined market observer is not to predict what comes next with certainty, but to pay attention to what the markets are actually doing today.
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.
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THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial adviso