From the trading Desk at Stipelis
The strategy session for Wednesday, February 4, 2026
Stress is Rising
Markets have been busy but not calm. Some areas do surprisingly well, others struggle. That mix matters. It tells us investors want opportunity but stay uneasy and quick to change direction. Our desk sees a rising chance that equities could weaken. We also see softness in the Stipelis bond index. That combination adds risk to stocks.
On the winners list this year, food and energy stand out. Lean hogs, heating oil, and soybean oil are higher. Silver and crude oil are also up, which usually happens when people worry about supply or global tension. Smaller stocks held ground too. These moves suggest money is still flowing but only into selected markets.
On the other side, cocoa is down sharply, continuing the slide that started in 2024. Natural gas has dropped hard, reminding everyone how fast energy prices can swing. Corn, sugar, coffee, and cotton also dropped. Weakness in these everyday goods often points to slower demand or too much supply. That is not a single market problem. It is a broader signal.
Day-to-day trading has shown the same dual theme. Livestock has rallied, while energy turned lower fast. That split day usually means traders are unsure and exiting positions quickly. Gold saw a big swing. Silver has been strong then pulled back. Copper jumped higher today. When metals disagree like this, the market is not settled.
Volume spiked in natural gas, gold, and the Australian dollar. High volume with wide price swings shows emotions are high. Stocks also showed cracks. The Nasdaq and S&P drifted lower, and the Russell slipped. Measures of stress rose. That is not panic. It is a warning that leadership can shift quickly.
This is an environment for patience and clear rules. Rotation keeps moving. The path ahead is unlikely to be smooth for now.
Stephen Coleman-founder and Commodity Trading Advisor
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.
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The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
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