Markets flinched as Trump threatened 35% tariffs on Canada. The VIX spiked to 17.24 before easing—but it’s a reminder that calm can shift quickly.
7-14-2025
From the Trading Desk at Stipelis
The VIX is making some noise today.
After weeks of calm, the index jumped to 17.24, up 4.8% on the day. The move is sparked by tariff threats from President Trump, who floated a 35% levy on Canadian goods starting August 1. This has spooked the markets just enough to wake up volatility, even if only briefly.
Let’s keep it in perspective: a VIX near 16 is still very low. But traders will be watching closely as this week brings a packed calendar.
Inflation is front and center. Tuesday’s CPI report could set the tone. Expectations are modest (0.3% monthly), but anything above could rattle confidence. PPI follows on Wednesday. Throw in speeches from Fed Governors Bowman, Barr, Collins, Logan, and others—and it’s a busy macro week even without a formal FOMC meeting.
Earnings season ramps up fast. JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs will all report. So will names like Netflix, GE Aerospace, and 3M.
Commodities remain active. We’re seeing bullish momentum in natural gas, crude oil, heating oil, RBOB gasoline, coffee, and wheat. Silver just made a 4-week high.
Copper is down—but not out. The red metal is pulling back, but this looks like straightforward profit-taking. It just rallied hard over the past month and is pausing to catch its breath. The underlying narrative—tight supply and rising electrification demand—remains intact.
This week is less about panic and more about positioning. The VIX may have stirred, but it’s still not screaming. However, with inflation data, Fed talk, and corporate earnings all stacked up, traders should stay alert. This could be the week the market picks a direction.
Stephen Coleman Head market Strategist