Natural gas futures (May contract) closed at $3.093, extending the recent downtrend and reflecting a 4.68% decline from the prior session’s close of $3.245. The week has been defined by seasonally weak demand, with heating use tapering and cooling demand not yet strong enough to provide support. Mild weather and strong renewable output have contributed to bearish sentiment, while traders positioned cautiously ahead of the Easter weekend.
From a technical standpoint, price action broke below both the daily pivot of $3.26 and the weekly pivot of $3.60, with the contract testing support levels near $3.09 and $3.00. This places the market near the Bollinger Band lower bound of $3.06, signaling potential oversold conditions. RSI has dropped to 31.63, close to the traditional oversold threshold of 30. Stochastics are also subdued, with %K at 2.71 and %D at 3.96, reflecting weak momentum.
Volume came in at 487,881, 15% below the 20-day moving average, suggesting reduced participation. Open interest remains elevated at 1.49 million, just below the 20-day average of 1.59 million.
With futures now down 10.68% year-to-date, the market remains technically weak. Resistance levels to watch are $3.32 and $3.40, with key support at $3.00. A sustained move below $3.00 could open the door to a test of the weekly support at $2.66.
Stephen Coleman 4-21-2025