The Market update from the Trading Desk at Stipelis
1-29-2026
Global markets are navigating a familiar but tense mix of strong growth signals and tight financial conditions. While equity headlines are drawing attention, the real story is unfolding beneath the surface in futures, currencies, rates, and commodities. These markets are reacting to shifting expectations around liquidity, inflation, and global demand, and the moves are becoming more decisive.
Stock index futures reflect this split clearly. Strength in S&P and Nasdaq futures earlier in the session gave way to selling pressure as rate expectations reset. The lack of clarity from central banks continues to limit follow-through on rallies. When growth optimism rises without policy support, futures markets tend to fade the move rather than extend it. That tone is now visible across U.S. and global index contracts.
Interest rate futures remain the anchor. With policy rates held steady and no clear signal on cuts, the front end of the curve stays firm while longer-dated contracts struggle. This keeps pressure on duration and reinforces a higher-for-longer narrative. Treasury futures drifting lower confirms that bond traders are not yet ready to price in easier conditions. This matters because rates continue to guide capital flows across every asset class.
Currency markets are responding with caution. The U.S. dollar slipping to new short-term lows suggests that rate support is no longer strengthening, even if cuts remain distant. That has opened the door for renewed interest in the yen, Swiss franc, and Australian dollar. These moves point to selective repositioning rather than a full risk-on shift. FX traders appear focused on balance, not momentum.
Commodities are where conviction is building. Gold remains one of the clearest signals in the market. Strong volume, expanding ranges, and repeated pushes to new highs show steady demand tied to rates uncertainty and currency weakness. Gold’s leadership role suggests investors are still hedging macro risk rather than chasing growth.
Silver’s surge reinforces that view, with industrial and monetary demand aligning. The move higher has been fast, supported by momentum and participation, which often signals confidence in the trend. Copper pushing higher adds another layer, pointing to steady global demand expectations despite rate pressure.
Energy markets continue to firm. Crude oil and RBOB gasoline breaking to four-week highs reflect tightening supply dynamics and stable consumption signals. These moves are incremental, not explosive, but they remain constructive. Heating oil’s pullback looks more like rotation than reversal, especially given broader energy strength.
Agricultural markets remain mixed but active. Wheat stands out with a strong breakout, supported by weather risks and global supply concerns. Corn and soybean products show smaller, uneven moves, suggesting that traders are selective rather than broadly bullish. Livestock markets remain firm, adding to the theme of underlying demand stability.
Volatility remains elevated but controlled. Large daily ranges in natural gas, gold, and FX futures show that traders are engaged, yet not panicked. This type of volatility often appears during transitions, when markets are reassessing fair value rather than reacting to shock.
Overall, futures markets are signaling adjustment, not stress. Capital is rotating toward assets tied to real value, inflation protection, and supply constraints. Until rate expectations clearly shift, index futures may struggle to trend, while commodities and select currencies continue to attract attention.
This environment favors patience, flexibility, and close attention to intermarket signals. Rates set the tone, currencies confirm the message, and commodities reveal where conviction truly sits.
Stephen Coleman – Founder and Commodity Trading Advisor
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. Member ID 0474441
The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
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