The Daily Market Update
From the Trading Desk at Stipelis
tuesday, February 3, 2026
So far this year, markets have been busy but not calm. Some areas are doing surprisingly well, while others are clearly struggling. That mix tells us something important. Investors are still looking for opportunity, but they are also uneasy and quick to change direction when things feel uncertain.
On the winners list year to date, food and energy stand out. Lean hogs, heating oil, and soybean oil are all higher. Silver and crude oil are also up, which usually happens when people worry about supply or global tension. Smaller stocks have held their ground too, with the Russell 2000 showing a solid gain so far this year. These moves suggest money is still flowing, but it is being selective.
On the other side, some well known markets have taken a beating. Cocoa is down sharply, giving back a big chunk of last year’s gains. Natural gas has dropped hard, reminding everyone how fast energy prices can swing. Corn, sugar, coffee, and cotton are also lower. These are everyday goods, and weakness here often points to slower demand or too much supply.
Monday’s action added another layer to the story. Livestock markets led the way higher, with feeder cattle, lean hogs, and live cattle all posting gains. The Dow also finished strong, showing that investors were still willing to buy stocks by the end of the day. At the same time, energy prices moved the opposite way. Natural gas collapsed, and heating oil, crude oil, and gasoline all fell sharply. That kind of split day usually means traders are unsure and reacting quickly to new information.
Volume tells us where attention was focused. Natural gas topped the list by a wide margin, followed by gold and the Australian dollar. When volume spikes like that, it usually means emotions are high. People are rushing in or rushing out, sometimes both. Gold also showed a very wide trading range, another sign that fear and uncertainty are in play.
Stocks overall are starting to look tired. While major indexes are still near highs, recent moves show cracks forming. The Nasdaq and S&P were lower today, while the Russell slipped as well. Meanwhile, measures of market stress moved higher. The VIX jumped, which is another way of saying investors are paying more for protection. That does not happen when people feel relaxed.
Metals sent a mixed signal. Gold sold off yesterday but surged today, pushing sharply higher during the session. Silver has been strong this year but also saw a sharp pullback. Copper jumped higher today, which often reflects optimism about growth. When metals disagree like this, it usually means the market itself is undecided.
Currencies added to the confusion. The US dollar is slightly lower on the year, while the Australian dollar has moved higher. These shifts suggest money is moving across borders, searching for better balance as conditions change.
Interest rate markets have been quieter but not calm. Longer term bonds are slightly lower on the year, and short term yields remain elevated. The gap between shorter and longer rates remains tight, which often signals caution about future growth.
Taken together, the message is clear. Markets are not breaking down, but they are under stress. Sharp drops in energy, sudden moves in metals, and rising volatility all point to a market that is alert and reactive. This is the kind of environment where leadership can change quickly and where diversification matters most.
Instead of one clear trend, we are seeing rotation. Money moves into one area, then out just as fast. That does not mean panic, but it does mean uncertainty. In times like this, patience and discipline matter more than predictions. Markets will continue to move, but the path forward is unlikely to be smooth.
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Stephen Coleman-Founder and Commodity Trading Advisor
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. Member ID 0474441
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The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.