From the Trading Desk
The Strategy Session – The Markets Are Wrong
Wednesday, July 1, 2026
For much of the last twenty years, investors lived in a world where stocks appeared to have all the answers.
Technology has transformed industries. Interest rates remained historically low. Capital flowed steadily toward large, growth companies. Commodities became an afterthought for many investors, often viewed as cyclical markets that lacked the excitement and growth potential found elsewhere.
The assumption that this relationship would continue indefinitely slowly became accepted as fact.
George Soros spent much of his career questioning assumptions like these.
At the center of his investment philosophy was the theory of reflexivity, the idea that markets are not simply mirrors reflecting reality. Markets can shape reality itself.
Investors form opinions. Those opinions influence prices. Prices influence economic decisions. Those decisions change the underlying fundamentals.
The result is a feedback loop that can last much longer than many people expect.
Housing provided perhaps the most famous example.
Rising home prices encouraged additional buying. Banks increased lending activity. Higher prices reinforced confidence in even higher prices. The cycle continued until reality eventually interrupted the narrative.
Soros argued that markets are capable of becoming objectively wrong for long periods of time.
Not slightly wrong. Completely wrong.
That observation may be worth considering when looking at today’s market environment.
For years, capital concentrated in a relatively small number of companies and sectors. The belief that innovation and technology would continue attracting the majority of investment dollars became increasingly accepted.
Meanwhile, many commodity markets have experienced years of underinvestment.
Energy infrastructure expanded more slowly. Mining investment slowed. Agricultural producers faced rising costs and tighter margins.
Commodity prices spent years failing to attract meaningful attention outside their respective industries.
Yet economies continue to run on physical inputs.
Copper remains necessary for electrification.
Energy remains necessary for transportation and manufacturing.
Agricultural production remains necessary regardless of economic cycles or technological advances.
The physical economy never disappeared. It simply received less attention. Recent market behavior has started to reopen that conversation.
Several commodity sectors have shown renewed strength and at the same time portions of the equity market have begun showing greater sensitivity to valuation concerns, interest rates and slowing growth expectations.
None of this guarantees a major shift is underway.
Markets rarely move in straight lines. Narratives rarely disappear overnight. But history suggests leadership eventually changes.
Entire generations of investors have experienced environments dominated by financial assets. Other generations experienced periods dominated by energy, industrial materials and real assets.
The 1970s provided one example. The early 2000s provided another.
Today’s environment raises questions that look increasingly familiar.
If inflation proves more persistent than expected, real assets may receive renewed attention.
If governments continue investing in infrastructure, electrification and industrial reshoring, commodity demand could evolve in important ways.
If supply growth remains constrained while demand gradually expands, pricing relationships that have existed for years may begin to look different.
Again, none of this represents certainty.
The future rarely announces itself in advance.
What Soros understood was that markets often become attached to stories that feel permanent right before they begin to change.
Perhaps the most important lesson from reflexivity is humility.
Markets can be right for years. Markets can also be wrong for years. The difficult task is recognizing the difference.
As investors and traders watch the relationship between financial assets and real assets evolve, that question may become increasingly important during the decade ahead.
The market is not always a weighing machine. Sometimes it is simply telling itself a story.
Eventually reality decides how the story ends.
Stipelis Global Trading LLC
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.
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The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
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