The Big Picture
From The Trading Desk at Stipelis
Macro View Monday – February 9, 2026
When Markets Line Up
stress is Easing but it’s not gone Yet
Friday’s action gave us something rare. Most major markets moved in a way that actually makes sense when you step back and connect the dots. Stocks pushed higher. The dollar slipped. Gold jumped. Rates stayed firm. Stress eased. When these pieces move together, they usually tell a bigger story about what money is doing and where pressure is building.
This was not random. It fits a familiar intermarket pattern.
The Dollar Sets the Tone
The U.S. dollar moved lower on the day and is now down slightly for the year. That matters more than most people realize.
A falling dollar tends to lift commodity prices. It makes raw materials cheaper for buyers outside the U.S. and pushes investors toward hard assets. We saw that play out clearly. Gold rose almost 2 percent on the day and is up more than 7 percent year to date. Energy prices are also higher for the year, even after a quiet Friday.
The message here is simple. The dollar stopped helping financial assets and started helping real assets instead.
Commodities and Rates Tell the Same Story
Commodities and bond prices usually move in opposite directions. When commodities rise, bond prices tend to fall, which means interest rates move higher.
That relationship is still intact.
Gold strength and steady energy prices suggest inflation pressure has not gone away. At the same time, bond prices barely moved and remain slightly lower for the year. Yields across the curve are still elevated, especially on the long end.
This combination tells us the market is not expecting a sharp slowdown. It is pricing in growth that refuses to cool off completely.
Stocks Follow, Not Lead
Stocks had a strong session across the board. Small caps led, followed by the Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq. Volatility dropped sharply, which usually means investors are more comfortable taking risk.
But here is the key point. Bonds usually change direction before stocks do. Right now, bonds are not confirming the equity rally in a big way. They are steady, not enthusiastic.
That creates a window where stocks can keep moving higher, but it also raises the risk of sharper pullbacks if rates move up again.
Stress Is Falling, Not Gone
Market stress indicators eased. Volatility dropped. Credit spreads tightened slightly. The curve remains positively sloped.
That is constructive, but not perfect.
A calm market with rising commodities and firm rates often means investors are rotating rather than panicking. Money is moving, not hiding.
Putting It All Together
Here is the takeaway. A weaker dollar is lifting commodities. Rising commodities support higher interest rates. Higher rates usually make life harder for stocks, but equities are still pushing higher because stress is falling and growth expectations remain intact.
This balance can hold for a while, but it is not stable forever.
One Forecast to Watch
Gold looks like the cleanest signal right now.
As long as the dollar stays under pressure and rates remain firm, gold prices are likely to stay supported. A move toward the next round number higher over the coming weeks would not be surprising, especially if inflation data stays sticky.
Stay tuned — our new podcast is coming soon.
We’ll explore these topics in more detail and share fresh market perspectives.
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The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.