From the Trading Desk at Stipelis
The Stipelis Strategy Session-Commodities are doing the work.
The relief rally continues, and you can see it clearly in the simplest places. The U.S. dollar has softened, crude oil has pulled back, and the pressure we saw in heating oil and gasoline has eased. When those markets relax together, it usually means fear is coming out of the system. That matters because markets tend to move more on emotion than logic in the short run, and right now the emotional tone is calmer than it was just weeks ago.
We remain constructive on equities. That has not changed. Our current view is straightforward: stay long existing equity positions. The recent bounce has helped repair some damage, and the market is still rewarding patience rather than panic. That said, it is important to recognize a simple truth. U.S. equity indexes are still flat for the year. After all the movement, noise, and headlines, investors have not actually made progress in equities yet.
That gap between price movement and real results is worth respecting. When markets feel busy but portfolios are not growing, it is usually a sign that opportunity may lie somewhere else. In our case, it already has.
The Stipelis Equity Index is flat to slightly negative on the year. At the same time, our commodity, energy, and agricultural indicators are all positive. That contrast tells an important story. While stocks have been choppy and inconsistent, real assets have quietly done their job. Commodities are responding to supply limits, weather shifts, and long‑term demand trends in ways that equities are not.
This does not mean equities are broken. It means they are not the only game in town. Many investors build portfolios as if stocks are the only serious source of returns. That approach works during strong, smooth bull markets. It struggles when markets move sideways, reverse often, and punish impatience. That is the kind of year we are living in now.
This is where diversification stops being an academic idea and starts becoming practical. Adding commodities is not about making a bold call or chasing performance. It is about recognizing that different markets respond to different pressures. Energy does not move for the same reasons as stocks. Agriculture does not care about earnings calls or stock buybacks. These markets react to real‑world conditions, and those conditions have been active this year.
A managed futures program allows investors to access those markets without needing to manage them directly. More importantly, it allows exposure to trends whether markets are rising or falling. When stocks drift sideways, other markets often do not. That difference can help smooth results and reduce the emotional strain that comes from watching familiar indexes go nowhere.
Right now, the relief rally may continue. A weaker dollar and softer energy prices support that possibility. But relief rallies are not the same as lasting momentum. Markets that are truly healthy tend to show broad participation and consistent progress. We are not there yet.
That is why our message is balanced. Stay long equities if you are already there. Do not abandon positions simply because patience is being tested. At the same time, consider what is missing from your portfolio. Commodities are not a replacement for stocks. They are a complement. This year is making that case very clearly.
Our role at Stipelis is not to predict headlines or chase short‑term moves. It is to position portfolios so they can function across different environments. So far in 2026, commodities have been doing the heavy lifting. That reality deserves respect.
The Trading Desk at Stipelis
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.
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THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION.
The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.