An Energy Shock…Again
From the Trading Desk at Stipelis
The Macro-View for Monday, July 13, 2026
Last week ended on a positive note for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all posted gains and continued to show solid year-to-date strength. By Monday, however, the market’s attention shifted abruptly away from equity performance and toward the energy sector. [
The catalyst was concern surrounding the Strait of Hormuz after comments from the White House increased focus on the potential risks to one of the world’s most important energy transportation routes. When investors hear concerns involving the movement of oil through the Persian Gulf, energy markets tend to respond quickly. That is exactly what happened today.
Crude oil futures surged more than 8%, producing one of the largest moves among major asset classes. The strength was not isolated to crude oil alone. Energy products broadly moved higher, reinforcing the idea that traders were responding to concerns about supply and transportation risk rather than a routine daily fluctuation.
Once energy began moving sharply higher, the effects spread throughout the rest of the financial markets.
Stock index futures weakened as the session progressed. Nasdaq futures led the decline, falling 1.75%, while S&P 500 futures and Dow futures also moved lower. While these losses were noticeable, they came against a backdrop of strong gains throughout 2026. The larger story was not the equity decline itself but rather what appeared to be causing it.
Higher energy prices can influence almost every corner of the economy. They affect transportation, manufacturing, consumer spending, and business costs. Whether today’s energy surge proves temporary or develops into a longer-lasting trend remains unknown, but the market clearly treated the move as significant.
At the same time, investors continued moving away from Treasury securities. The Stipelis Bond Market Index, represented by weakness across Treasury futures, registered new four-week lows. The 2-Year, 5-Year, 10-Year Note, and Treasury Bond futures all pushed to fresh four-week lows during the session.
This broad decline across the Treasury market suggests investors were reassessing the outlook for interest rates, inflation, or economic conditions. Whatever the precise motivation, the message from the bond market was clear. Demand for Treasury futures weakened as energy prices accelerated higher.
The U.S. dollar also strengthened. The Dollar Index climbed to 101.05, adding to its positive performance for the year. Dollar strength appeared to reinforce several of the day’s other moves.
One particularly interesting development was the weakness in the Swiss franc. The franc fell to a new four-week low and joined Treasury futures on the list of markets breaking recent support levels. Traditionally, the Swiss franc is viewed as a defensive currency. Its weakness alongside bonds suggests that investors were not broadly seeking traditional safe-haven assets despite the geopolitical concerns being discussed.
Gold told a similar story.
Gold declined almost 3% during the session, an unusually large move considering the headlines that were driving attention in the energy market. In many situations, geopolitical uncertainty supports gold prices. Today, however, the combination of a stronger dollar and rising yields appeared to outweigh that relationship. Gold’s decline reinforced the broader theme visible throughout the session.
Perhaps the most important takeaway from today’s market action is the consistency of the message across asset classes.
Energy moved sharply higher.
The dollar strengthened.
Treasury futures weakened.
Gold weakened.
The Swiss franc weakened.
Stock index futures declined.
Viewed separately, each market tells only part of the story. Viewed together, they suggest investors spent the day adjusting to higher energy prices and the economic implications that may accompany them.
As the week begins, the dominant theme is not simply whether stocks were up or down. Instead, it is the emergence of energy as the primary driver of market behavior. The strongest signal came from the dramatic move in crude oil and the chain reaction that followed across currencies, bonds, metals, and equities. That cross-market relationship may ultimately be remembered as the defining feature of today’s session.
The Trading Desk at Stipelis
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