From the Trading Desk at Stipelis
The Strategy Session
Wednesday, December 3, 2025
The Trading Desk at Stipelis is Preparing for Potential Market Turns with Strategic insights to help you navigate volatility, identify opportunities, and manage risk with confidence.
The past few weeks have delivered a series of technical and fundamental signals that demand attention. On our proprietary charts, all four major equity markets have broken intermediate-term trend lines. This is not a minor development—it suggests that the bullish momentum we’ve seen for much of the year is losing steam. When trend lines fail, it often signals a shift in sentiment, and that’s exactly what we’re observing.
Adding to the complexity, the 10-year Treasury note is forming a classic head-and-shoulders pattern. For those unfamiliar, this formation often precedes a reversal. In the context of rates, it could mean volatility ahead, especially if neckline support gives way. Traders should be alert to the implications for bond yields and risk assets.
Currency markets are telling their own story. The U.S. Dollar Index is hovering near its four-week low but hasn’t closed below that level yet. Meanwhile, the British pound and Australian dollar are both sitting at four-week highs. This divergence suggests capital flows are favoring non-dollar assets, which could have ripple effects across commodities and equities.
Speaking of commodities, metals have been the standout performers. Copper is up 30%, silver has doubled, and gold has surged 60%. These moves are significant and often reflect underlying macro themes such as inflation expectations, safe-haven demand, and industrial growth. In contrast, crude oil has fallen 18% year-to-date, signaling weakness in energy markets and possibly global demand concerns.
So, what does this mean for strategy? At the trading desk, we’ve adopted a cautious stance on equities. The broken trend lines, combined with mixed signals from rates and currencies, suggest that risk management should be front and center. This is not the time for aggressive positioning. Instead, focus on tactical opportunities—perhaps in metals, where momentum remains strong, or in currencies showing relative strength.
Markets are dynamic, and these conditions can change quickly. But for now, the message is clear: caution is warranted. Stay disciplined, monitor technical levels closely, and be prepared for volatility. In times like these, patience and precision often outperform bold bets.
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association.
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The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
THE RISK OF LOSS IN TRADING COMMODITY INTERESTS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL. YOU SHOULD THEREFORE CAREFULLY CONSIDER WHETHER SUCH TRADING IS SUITABLE FOR YOU IN LIGHT OF YOUR FINANCIAL CONDITION
Stephen Coleman – Founder