From the Trading Desk at Stipelis:
The Macro View-Broken Trend lines in the Equity Markets
Monday, December 1, 2025
The markets are sending mixed signals as we head into December. The Volatility Index has slipped back to the $17 level, suggesting a risk-on environment. But beneath the surface, cracks are forming.
The U.S. dollar continues to weaken, with charts pointing to an oversold condition. A downside target of 98.50 remains in play, while resistance sits near 100.25. If the dollar rebounds, it could shift sentiment across global markets.
Meanwhile, bonds are under heavy pressure. The 10-year futures contract is sliding, pushing yields higher and tightening financial conditions. Historically, bond weakness often leads equity softness, and this time may be no different.
Commodities tell their own story. Gold is approaching $4,300 per ounce—an impressive run that looks overbought but still bullish. Crude oil trades sideways, stuck between resistance at $60–$61 and support at $56–$57. Lumber looks weak, and cocoa remains the worst performer year-to-date, underscoring uneven demand trends.
Equities are flashing caution. The E-mini S\&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures have rallied but appear overbought on below-average volume. More importantly, bullish trendlines across major indices have been broken. The Stipelis Equity Index echoes this pattern, signaling that momentum may be fading.
Our trading desk believes it may be time to take some profits off the table after consulting with advisors. With bond markets under stress and equity trendlines broken, risk management is critical.
Looking ahead, we’ll dive deeper into these dynamics during our January Trading Desk Podcast and Town Square Meeting on the health of financial markets. Stay tuned for actionable insights as we navigate this pivotal moment.
Stephen Coleman
Founder – Stipelis Global Trading LLC
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. Member ID 0474441
The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are considered market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and with direct consultation with a financial advisor.
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