Bonds Lead the Charge

 

The Market Update From the Trading Desk at Stipelis:

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

Bonds Lead the Charge

Equities continued to climb as the market reacted to yesterday’s strong push in the major index futures. The Nasdaq 100 led the charge with a gain of 2.64%, followed by strength across the Russell 2000 and S&P 500. Today’s intraday action kept that momentum intact, with the Russell up another 2.17% and the Dow up 1.46%. Even with rising volatility earlier this month, the VIX slid sharply to 19.39 intraday, reflecting a calmer tone underneath the tape.

Breadth has improved. Large-cap tech continues to pull the market higher, but we’re also seeing small-caps participate, which helps build confidence in the rally. Year-to-date, the Nasdaq 100 is up 17.53% and the S&P 500 E-mini is up over 13%, showing steady demand for risk assets despite mixed economic data.

The sector indices also show a clear picture: the Equity Index is up 1.30% intraday and 10.32% YTD. Earnings expectations into year-end remain cautious but stable, and lower rate expectations are giving equities room to climb.

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2. Bonds Break Higher

Bonds were the real story. Yesterday saw massive volume spikes—5-year notes rose over 260% in volume, 2-years jumped 241%, and long bonds surged more than 180%. Today, the 10-year continued higher intraday, rising 0.23% as yields slipped again.

The Bond Index is up 0.29% intraday and higher on the week and month. With the 5-year breaking to new 4-week highs, the bond market is signaling that traders are shifting toward a more supportive rate environment. Lower volatility in fixed income and persistent buying interest point to expectations of easing financial conditions into early next year.

Bond range leadership today—50% of total market range—shows that fixed income is driving cross-asset direction. This bond strength has been a tailwind for risk assets across the board.

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3. Currency Moves Stay Quiet

Currencies stayed relatively muted, with the Dollar Index down another 0.30% intraday. The dollar is down 7.59% YTD, continuing its slide as global rate spreads shift.

The Forex Index is modestly higher on the day and up 8.29% YTD. A softer dollar has kept metals well supported and helped lift commodity demand across several markets.

The steady decline in the dollar remains an important backdrop—lower levels tend to provide room for equities and commodities to extend rallies.

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4. Standout Commodity: Live Cattle and the Meat Complex

In commodities, the meat markets were the standout—though not for bullish reasons. Live cattle dropped more than 3% yesterday and feeders fell nearly as much. Today, live cattle hit new 4-week lows. Range expansion has been extreme, with live cattle leading all markets yesterday on a 57.80% range move.

The pressure in the meat sector reflects demand softness, heavier supplies, and continued volatility in wholesale beef markets. While grains have held stable and energies have softened, the meat markets have been one of the more challenging areas of the commodity space.

This sector’s weakness stands in contrast to strong YTD gains in metals and select energy markets. Meat traders will likely stay cautious as volatility remains elevated.

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5. Sector Spotlight: Metals Stay Firm

Metals continue to impress. Silver remains the top YTD gainer at 72%, followed by gold at 55%. Today gold added another 0.76% intraday. The Metals Index is up more than 50% YTD and continues to benefit from the weaker dollar and strong safe-haven interest. While the headline story today is bonds, metals continue to show that capital is seeking stability across multiple asset classes.

Stephen Coleman

Head Trader at Stipelis