From the Trading Desk at Stipelis:
The Macro View-Global Market Moves across Asset Classes
11-24-2025
Global Crosswinds
The global economy is running through a period marked by uneven signals across currencies, commodities, bonds, and equities. The pullback in the US Dollar Index—down more than 7% this year—has shifted capital toward the euro, franc, and pound. A softer dollar usually supports commodities, and that pattern is clear in metals. Gold is up more than 54% and silver has surged over 70%, pointing to stress in real yields, geopolitical tension, or both.
Bond markets tell a different story. Treasury futures are higher across the curve, pushing yields lower and signaling that investors expect slower growth ahead. Your Treasury Yield Index is down more than 11%, making conditions easier for equity markets. That lines up with the broad rally: the S&P is up more than 11%, the Nasdaq more than 14%, and the Stipelis Equity Index is ahead more than 9%.
The commodity complex adds nuance. Metals and natural gas are rising sharply, but oil is down almost 19%, and grains are mixed. When this happens, it often reflects supply-specific issues rather than a single macro trend. The combination of rising metals and falling energy prices creates space for equities to advance without immediate inflation pressure. That’s the key reason markets have been able to embrace lower yields without worrying about a wider surge in input costs.
One relationship stands out: metals and bonds rising at the same time. These two rarely move together unless investors see slower growth, easier policy, and a need for safer assets. With silver near $50 and gold above $4,000, markets may be signalling long-term concerns around debt, geopolitics, and liquidity.
The VIX above 23 shows growing unease even as stocks rise. That mix of caution and momentum is typical late in a cycle, when investors hedge while still participating in the upside.
Looking ahead, the direction of commodities will likely determine how long equities can ride falling yields. If metals keep rising and the dollar continues to slide, that pressure could spill over into both bonds and stocks. Energy prices will be the key tell. If crude joins the metals rally, the tone of the macro environment shifts toward inflation risk rather than easing conditions.
For now, the data points to a moderate-growth backdrop helped by easier policy and a weaker dollar. Large-caps and rate-sensitive sectors remain well-positioned. Smaller companies continue to lag due to tighter credit conditions at home.
The broader picture is one of opportunity mixed with caution. The window for equity strength remains open, but the behavior of commodities—especially metals—will determine how long that lasts.
Stephen Coleman – Market Strategist at Stipelis
Stipelis Global Trading LLC is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association. Member ID 0474441
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