Monday April 13, 2026
From the Trading Desk at Stipelis
The Macro View – Volatility Continues
Markets continue to send a clear and consistent message, and that message is coming from outside traditional financial assets. Commodities remain in control, bonds are still weakening, interest rates continue to lean higher, and the U.S. dollar has softened in recent weeks. Together, these relationships point to an inflation-aware environment that has not yet resolved itself.
At the center of today’s cross-market picture is commodity leadership. Broad commodity prices remain in a primary uptrend, supported by firm demand, supply constraints, and pricing pressure tied to energy markets. While not every commodity is participating equally, the overall direction remains intact, reinforcing the idea that inflation pressure has not faded as much as markets once expected.
The relationship between the U.S. dollar and commodities remains especially important. Historically, a weaker dollar provides support for commodity pricing, and that pattern has held. While the dollar remains slightly positive for the year, recent monthly weakness suggests momentum has slowed. That softer tone has coincided with strong performance across energy and selective agricultural markets. As long as the dollar avoids a sharp rebound, it continues to act more as a tailwind than a headwind for commodity prices.
Bond markets tell the other half of the story. Bond prices remain under pressure, reflecting an environment where interest rates have not found a durable ceiling. Treasury bonds and notes are modestly lower on the year, reinforcing the idea that inflation risk remains present. When bonds weaken, rates tend to move higher, and this dynamic often aligns with stronger performance in real assets rather than financial ones.
Commodities and bonds rarely move together in sustained trends, and the current spread between the two remains wide. Commodity indexes are up sharply year to date, while bond-related indexes continue to lag. Energy stands out as the dominant contributor, with refined products and crude oil posting sizable gains. This is not broad-based inflation across every input, but a highly concentrated, energy-led pressure that continues to ripple outward.
Drilling deeper into the commodity space shows important contrasts. Energy markets have posted outsized gains, while metals have moved higher at a more measured pace. Agricultural markets show a mix of strength and weakness depending on supply conditions and seasonal factors. On the downside, commodities like cocoa, coffee, and natural gas have declined sharply, reflecting oversupply, normalization, or demand sensitivity rather than macro stress.
These divergences matter. They suggest that the inflation signal is coming from pricing pressure, not panic. The absence of across-the-board commodity spikes points to a market still responding to fundamentals rather than fear-driven behavior.
Equities remain caught between two forces. On one hand, growth has held up better than expected in parts of the economy. On the other, rising rates continue to apply pressure to valuations. Equity indexes are roughly flat for the year, and recent monthly gains mask a growing sensitivity to interest rate movements.
Historically, the bond market tends to lead equities during periods of transition. Continued weakness in bond prices suggests that equity markets may remain vulnerable if rates stay elevated or resume their climb. Equity resilience can persist for a time, but it becomes harder to maintain when financing conditions tighten.
The broader takeaway from today’s intermarket structure is consistency. Commodities are strong, bonds are weak, rates remain biased higher, and the dollar sits at the center as the key swing factor. This combination aligns with a late-cycle, inflation-aware framework rather than a deflationary or recession-driven one.
Any meaningful change in this environment will likely begin in the bond market. Stabilization in bond prices would signal easing rate pressure and could eventually shift cross-asset relationships. Until that occurs, the current structure remains intact.
For now, markets continue to reward inflation-aligned behavior and penalize duration-sensitive exposure. The weight of the evidence suggests this cycle has not yet finished working through the system.
This is where the Trading Desk at Stipelis is focused today.
The opinions expressed are those of Stipelis Global Trading LLC and are provided as market commentary. They are not intended to act as investment recommendations. Individuals should make investment decisions based on their own analysis and, where appropriate, in consultation with a qualified financial advisor.
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